Fuel Shortages: Failing to Plan is Planning to Fail
The Extent and Timing of the Shortages of Diesel Fuel and Natural Gas
The news headlines abound on winter shortages of diesel and natural gas. Some quotes are similar to these:
Just 25 days of diesel supply left — the lowest since 2008
US diesel supplier warns to prepare for shortages and higher prices.
A Natural Gas Shortage Looms for the U.S.A
A utility CEO warns that a natural gas shortage could put New England at risk of blackouts this winter.
Stay Aware and Mindful
This is the time to stay aware and be mindful of your sources - many are saying this is NOT “fake news,” nor is it sensationalized.
The diesel fuel and natural gas shortages are real — and according to the Washington Post,
"Inventories of diesel in the United States are the lowest they have been heading into winter in 70 years."
The reality is that NOW is the time to prepare. To prepare, do things ahead of time so that when food shelves are bare (again) in the grocery stores, that will be something that happens to others and not to you.
Facts on the Diesel and Natural Gas Shortages
Since the spring of 2008, distillate inventories (diesel fuel, jet fuel, and heating fuel) are at the lowest levels.
The reserves of diesel fuel have not been this low since 1951.
MoneyWise says,
“In 2021, the U.S. transportation sector alone consumed 46.82 billion gallons, or 1.11 billion barrels of distillate fuel (essentially diesel fuel) — at an average of about 128 million gallons a day.”
Across the nation, diesel prices are currently above $5.00, and as high as over $6.00 a gallon.
November deliveries for diesel prices have increased by 33%.
On October 25, EIA data showed the United States had only 25 days’ diesel supply left.
Here are some quotes from an advisory sent to businesses by the fuel supplier Mansfield Energy:
“For diesel specifically, the shortage will be painful at the macro level, but hopefully manageable at the micro level. Put another way – a tight diesel supply will force prices to go up, which will eventually make it too expensive for some people. … At the US economy level, that means pain as consumers cut back and businesses slash costs.”
“That’s not to say there won’t occasionally be situations where there is a true physical lack of products. Some cities might run dry on diesel for a few days, at least at the terminal level. […] Once again, those shortages will drive up prices, which will make it economical to long-haul product from surrounding markets which do have supply. The fuel will be delivered but at higher costs.”
Why Do We Have these Shortages and Rising Costs?
DIESEL SHORTAGES
Prepandemic shortages have not yet rebounded
Some diesel refineries have completely closed.
The ongoing situation in Ukraine has intensified.
Even if you do not have a diesel vehicle, shortages will affect every shipping food and consumer good that a truck brings to your stores and doors.
Higher prices will be passed along to the consumer, along with rising inflation costs.
Bloomberg reporter Chunzi Xu explains, “The economy runs on diesel.
When we run out of fuel, the supply chains collapse.
When a fuel shortage drives inflation, a worst-case scenario, everyday life becomes increasingly expensive.
In many parts of the country during the winter, diesel fuel is used for heat.
NATURAL GAS SHORTAGES
Natural gas inventories are also below the seasonal average.
Many companies are struggling to meet the high demands of wintertime.
S&P Global reported the ISO New England grid operator and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission …"have acknowledged for many months that New England will not have sufficient natural gas to meet power supply needs for the region in the event of a severe cold spell this winter”.
Limits on foreign natural gas imports, due once again, to the war in Ukraine and current U.S. policy.
Oil Price explains,
“Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. was importing nearly 700,000 barrels per day (BPD) of petroleum and petroleum products. Most of those imports were finished products and refinery inputs that boosted distillate supplies in the U.S. The loss of those Russian imports have caused problems for refineries as they struggle to fill holes in their product slates.”
Be Prepared
Fuel shortages are not expected to normalize to prepandemic levels until next summer. What is one to do? As survivalists, we can prepare because this is not and will not be the last time we need to have concern about the food and energy supply.
As Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at Opis, explains,
“Between now and the end of November, if we don't build inventories, the wolf will be at the door. And it will look like a big ugly wolf if it's a cold winter.”
TO DO:
Cut Back on Spending. Save Money. Expect that prices will rise.
Best to Stock Up on Dry and Emergency Food. As before, the grocery store is first to be affected, especially with panic shopping. Avoid crowds. Fill your pantry and send Emergency Food as a holiday gift.
If You Like Meat, Purchase it Now. Maybe start hunting or buy a half cow to keep in a freezer. Or stop eating meat - substitute with beans + rice = protein.
Do Early Holiday Shopping. Get your childrens’ gift list soon, buy on sale, and save money for gas and food.
Delve into Alternative Heat Sources. If your heat depends on fuel, consider a generator or the VESTA Self-powered Indoor Space Heater and Stove by InstaFire. Stock up on firewood but beware of fires in high-fire locations.
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